Census Bureau Updates Immigration Counting Method for Population Estimates
The U.S. Census Bureau has announced a significant update to its methodology for counting immigrants in annual population estimates. The new approach, set to be implemented in the upcoming release, will now include individuals admitted for humanitarian reasons, often temporarily.
This change aims to provide a more accurate reflection of population shifts in the current decade. The updated methodology will be applied to national estimates but will not affect state-level data. The forthcoming release of population estimates is expected to reveal changes in both U.S. and state populations for the year.
The percentage of foreign-born U.S. residents reached a century-high in 2023, and the new methodology could potentially increase this figure further. However, the Census Bureau has not disclosed the expected impact on immigration figures.
Experts acknowledge that counting new immigrants is the most challenging aspect of annual population estimates. This methodological shift coincides with President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House, which has pledged mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist at the Census Bureau, supports the new approach, stating it will lead to more accurate estimates. Previous Census Bureau estimates of migrant entries were notably lower than figures reported by other federal agencies. For instance, in 2023, the Census Bureau estimated 1.1 million immigrants, while the Congressional Budget Office reported 3.3 million.
The updated estimates will now include individuals entering the U.S. via humanitarian parole, a longstanding policy under both Republican and Democratic administrations. The Migration Policy Institute reported over 5.8 million admissions under humanitarian policies from 2021 to 2024.
This change carries political implications, as Trump has announced plans to end humanitarian parole, describing it as an “outrageous abuse.” Population estimates play a crucial role in federal funding distribution and are based on births, deaths, and migration data. These estimates serve as official population counts between decennial censuses for various U.S. regions.
As the Census Bureau implements this new methodology, its impact on population figures and subsequent policy decisions remains to be seen.
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