March 25, 2022 6:10 pm ET
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Although growth may slow as the Federal Reserve tries to rein in inflation, the yield curve might not be sending recession signals. Chris Delmas/AFP/Getty Images This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.
Misleading Recession Signal RBA’s InsightsMarch 24: Over the past 40 years, the U.S. economy has slipped into recession six times. During those 40 years, the difference between 10-year [Treasury] yields and 2-year yields (2s10s curve) has reliably dipped into negative territory on average about 18 months before GDP turns negative. Today the 2s10s curve is once again knocking on the door…
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