Prediction Markets Surge: Betting on Political Futures in Post-2024 America
Prediction Markets Thrive Post-Election, Betting on Political Futures
In the wake of the 2024 Presidential election, prediction markets have continued to capture public interest, with substantial sums still being wagered on various political outcomes. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which gained prominence during the election cycle, are now facilitating bets on a wide array of political and non-political events.
The rise of prediction markets saw billions wagered on the presidential election outcome. Kalshi, which received court approval in early October to offer election-based betting contracts to US citizens, has expanded its offerings beyond electoral politics. Both Kalshi and Polymarket now see bets placed on diverse topics, ranging from movie scores to sporting event outcomes.
Despite the conclusion of the election, politics remains a popular subject for betting. Current wagers include potential cabinet picks for President-elect Donald Trump and speculation on future presidential nominees. For the 2028 Democratic nominee, current odds favor Gavin Newsom, followed by Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer, with a total betting volume of $145,714. On the Republican side, JD Vance leads the odds, with Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis trailing, and a betting volume of $110,497.
Bets on Trump’s potential administration have drawn significant attention, with a notable $2.0 million in betting volume. Speculations include unconventional figures like Elon Musk and RFK Jr. as possible cabinet members.
Key political outcomes are also subject to substantial betting. Trump’s claim to swiftly end the Ukraine war has led to nearly split odds, with a betting volume of $2.9 million. His announcement of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General nominee has sparked bets on the confirmation process, with odds currently favoring a “No” outcome and a betting volume of $509,219.
Other notable bets include Trump’s choice for Press Secretary, with Karoline Leavitt leading the odds, and speculation on the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve. Bets are also being placed on Trump’s ability to end the Gaza war within his first 100 days in office.
As these prediction markets continue to evolve, they offer a unique glimpse into public sentiment and expectations for future political developments. However, it’s important to note that these markets reflect speculative activity and should not be considered definitive predictions of future events.
