Nicola Sturgeon Envisions Scottish Independence Amid UK Governance Shift
Nicola Sturgeon Predicts Scottish Independence Amid UK Governance Shake-Up
Former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has predicted that Scotland will become independent as part of a “wider shake-up” of UK governance, which may include Irish reunification and further devolution for Wales in the coming years.
In a recent interview, Sturgeon reflected on the 2014 independence referendum, stating that a Yes victory was “within grasp” on the eve of the vote. However, former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson claims Sturgeon lost her opportunity for a second referendum by acting too quickly after the 2016 Brexit vote.
Despite the Yes side losing the referendum, the Scottish National Party (SNP) enjoyed significant electoral success in subsequent years. However, the party has faced challenges, including the loss of 39 seats, a public fallout between Sturgeon and former leader Alex Salmond, and an ongoing police investigation into party finances.
Sturgeon remains committed to campaigning for Scottish independence, though she did not predict whether Irish reunification or Scottish independence would come first. In May 2022, she met with Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill to discuss Brexit, stating that it raised fundamental questions about UK governance.
The Good Friday Agreement allows for a united Ireland based on consent from both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with the Northern Ireland Act 1998 outlining the conditions for a border poll. However, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has stated that an Irish unity referendum is not imminent.
Reflecting on the 2014 referendum campaign, Sturgeon described it as both the best and worst of times, marked by political awakening and engagement. She acknowledged challenges faced by the Yes campaign, including opposition to a currency union from Westminster parties and a “disastrous” first TV debate between Salmond and Alistair Darling.
Post-referendum developments, including the UK’s vote to leave the EU despite Scotland voting to remain, have shaped the ongoing independence debate. Sturgeon admits she did not get everything right and wishes more progress had been made on independence.
Current support for independence has stabilized at just under 50%, according to Prof Sir John Curtice, with younger age groups showing higher support for Yes, while older age groups favor the union.
As Scotland marks the referendum anniversary, Sturgeon’s successor, John Swinney, is set to address independence campaigners, emphasizing the positive legacy left by the 2014 vote on Scotland’s political landscape.
