Nasdaq 100-S&P 500 Ratio Nears 2000 Peak: Is the Tech Boom Ending?

Bank of America monitors Nasdaq 100-S&P 500 ratio as potential indicator of market shift. Analysts suggest ratio decline could signal end of "US exceptionalism" trade. Current ratio nears 2000 peak, surpassing dot-com bubble era levels.

Staff Editor November 23, 2024

Bank of America Monitors Nasdaq 100-S&P 500 Ratio for Market Shift

Bank of America (BofA) is closely watching the trading relationship between the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, as a potential indicator of a significant market shift. Analysts suggest that a decline in the ratio between these two indexes could signal the end of the “US exceptionalism” trade, which has dominated market trends in recent years.

The current ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 is approaching its highest level since 2000, surpassing even the dot-com bubble era. BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, emphasize the importance of monitoring this ratio, as a decline below the 2000 peak could trigger a shift away from “US exceptionalism” trades.

Investors have heavily favored Nasdaq stocks, particularly those involved in emerging AI technologies. This trend has pushed US stocks to a 75-year high compared to global markets. However, BofA anticipates a potential peak in this theme, which could lead to a significant shift in investment focus.

Looking ahead, BofA predicts tightening US financial conditions, which may prompt traders to allocate more capital to international markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The bank forecasts China to outperform in 2025, despite current investor hesitancy towards Chinese tech stocks. Notably, Chinese tech stocks have shown strong year-to-date performance, though slightly trailing US tech gains.

The future performance of the S&P 500 remains uncertain, with the potential for significant movements in either direction by 2025. The Treasury market is expected to play a crucial role, with falling bond yields potentially boosting equities, while higher yields could lead to a market reversal.

BofA strategists also foresee rising rates as the bond market adapts to an “inflation boom” and lower interest rates. This scenario could limit risk assets in early 2025. The bank suggests buying Treasuries if rates exceed 5%, as this could trigger asset losses and a slowdown in economic growth.

As global market dynamics continue to evolve, investors and analysts alike will be closely monitoring these key indicators for signs of shifting trends and potential investment opportunities.